The Political Crisis in Mozambique: A Threat to Southern Africa’s Stability.

By Tasha Chongo

Mozambique is currently grappling with a political crisis that has the potential to destabilise the entire southern African region. The country’s most recent election, held in October 2024, was seen as a critical moment for Mozambique’s future. However, the election was marred by significant challenges, including allegations of voter suppression, irregularities, and political violence. The ruling FRELIMO party, led by President Filipe Nyusi, secured a controversial victory, but opposition groups, particularly RENAMO, have raised serious concerns about the transparency and fairness of the process. The election’s aftermath has led to heightened political polarisation, and the already volatile situation in the northern Cabo Delgado province where an Islamist insurgency has been raging for years—has only deepened the country’s instability. The combination of unresolved political tensions and escalating violence from insurgent groups threatens not just Mozambique’s internal peace, but the stability of neighbouring countries and the wider southern African region. This article explores how the ongoing crisis in Mozambique is impacting the broader region, the countries at risk, and the urgent need for a coordinated regional response to prevent further destabilisation.

The humanitarian crisis in Mozambique has reached alarming proportions. According to the United Nations, over 4,000 people have been killed in the conflict since 2017, with over 1,000,000 people displaced, most of whom are from the Cabo Delgado province. The violence has disrupted local economies, decimated infrastructure, and led to widespread food insecurity. In addition, the economic costs of the insurgency have been substantial. The discovery of vast natural gas reserves in the north was expected to be a boon for the country, but the ongoing conflict has made foreign investment in the region risky. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have warned that the conflict could derail Mozambique’s growth prospects, which had previously been on an upward trajectory.

Beyond the borders of Mozambique, the crisis is affecting neighboring countries as well. The insurgency in the north of the country has led to the displacement of tens of thousands of refugees into Tanzania, exacerbating the strain on Tanzania’s resources. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), Tanzania has been hosting around 80,000 refugees from Mozambique, putting additional pressure on the country’s already limited infrastructure and resources.

The political instability in Mozambique presents a direct threat to the security of the southern African region. Neighboring countries such as South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania are already experiencing the spillover effects of the conflict. South Africa, as the region’s economic powerhouse, is particularly vulnerable to the destabilizing influence of unrest in Mozambique. The rise in militant activity and the increase in refugee flows are creating significant pressure on South Africa’s border security and social services. South African businesses with interests in the region are also at risk, as the insecurity hampers trade and investment opportunities.

In response to the escalating crisis, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) have both taken steps to address the situation. SADC has deployed a peacekeeping force, composed of soldiers from countries like South Africa, Tanzania, and Zambia, to assist Mozambique in its fight against the insurgents. However, this intervention has been criticised for its limited scope and lack of coordination. The AU has also called for a united response to the conflict, but its efforts have been slow and fragmented, leading to accusations of inaction.

Internationally, countries like Portugal, the United States, and Rwanda have been involved in providing military support, humanitarian aid, and logistical assistance. Rwanda, in particular, has deployed a large contingent of troops to support Mozambican forces. While these efforts have had some success in containing the insurgency, the root causes of the conflict—poverty, weak governance, and corruption—remain largely unaddressed.

Should the situation in Mozambique deteriorate further, the effects could be catastrophic for the broader southern African region. A prolonged insurgency could spill over into neighbouring countries, exacerbating existing political tensions and economic difficulties. The crisis could lead to increased refugee flows, strain international aid organizations, and destabilize fragile governments in the region.

South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania could see further destabilisation as they deal with the economic, social, and security ramifications of the Mozambican conflict. These countries may also face growing pressure from international organizations, such as the United Nations and the African Union, to do more in addressing the crisis.

Moreover, the conflict in Mozambique threatens to destabilise the broader Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. SADC’s inability to effectively address the crisis could lead to a loss of confidence in the organisation’s capacity to manage regional security challenges. This could embolden other insurgent groups and exacerbate tensions in other conflict-prone areas, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Malawi, and Zimbabwe.

To prevent the crisis in Mozambique from spiralling into a regional catastrophe, a coordinated and swift response is essential. First, African countries, through the AU and SADC, must strengthen their collective efforts to combat the insurgency in Mozambique. This means improving coordination between regional and international forces, ensuring that military aid is accompanied by humanitarian assistance, and providing training and capacity-building for Mozambican security forces.

Second, efforts must be made to address the root causes of the conflict. Long-term development initiatives, including job creation, infrastructure development, and anti-corruption measures, are essential for reducing the allure of insurgent groups. The AU and SADC must push for comprehensive peace building efforts that include not just military action but also diplomacy, governance reform, and reconciliation between FRELIMO and RENAMO.

Lastly, the international community must continue to provide support to Mozambique while respecting the country’s sovereignty. This support should not only be military but also focused on humanitarian aid, economic development, and strengthening institutions. Only through a combined effort can Mozambique avoid further destabilisation and ensure the stability of southern Africa.

The political crisis in Mozambique is a pressing issue that has the potential to destabilise the entire southern African region. As insurgent groups continue to wreak havoc and the government struggles to regain control, the security, economic, and humanitarian impacts are being felt far beyond Mozambique’s borders. Regional actors, especially South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe, must remain vigilant and work with international partners to resolve the crisis before it becomes a full-blown regional catastrophe. Time is of the essence, and a unified, comprehensive response is needed to prevent further destabilisation and ensure long-term peace and prosperity for the region.

Tasha Chongo: Researcher, Writer, Strategy Analyst